Representing the People

On Saturday, an analysis was conducted that concluded that we describe this spectrum of views on Brexit in six main groups thus:

		Single Market	Euro-scepticism
A	Pro-EU	Yes	Embrace the EU
B	Clearly Remain	Yes	A little scepticism
C	Mildly Remain	Yes	Some scepticism
D	Mildly Leave	Yes	Somewhat more sceptical
E	Clearly Leave	Possibly	Sceptical
F	Brexiter	No	Anti-EU

This assumes that as border control is not possible with the Single Market, as this requires Freedom of Movement of people, the immigration dimension doesn't need to be added separately.

Most views will follow a standard 'normal distribution' of support.  Experience suggests this is also the case for Brexit, where YouGov polls are still suggesting support for Leave and Remain is finely balanced.  The standard looks like this, with the six groups mapped against it:

On that basis, over 68% of people would be in groups C and D, and 92% in B-E.

As with any issue, it is the two extreme groups F and A, Brexiters and Pro-EU, who shout loudest.  Twitter is full of them.  Their views need to be respected, from their own individual perspectives. But both groups are relatively few in number.

So a key question for you.  In which group A-F would you place yourself? 


IMPLICATIONS

There are three key implications:

1. The public would likely support remaining in the Single Market, but otherwise leaving the EU, by over 50%.  That's adding together groups C and D, with possibly B and/or E.  Hence the proposal for a 'Half Brexit' based on an 'EEAplus'
2. In any case support for Leave is likely to fall in coming weeks below that of Remain.  So it's #HalfBrexit or #Haltbrexit
3. Support for a new purely pro-EU political party may be strong from the pro-EU minority, but not from the country as a whole.  A new party that is anti-Brexit but not pro-EU would have broader support.  The Just Party.

There is now talk of a new party, presumably registered and more than just a pressure group.  But what form would it take?  You are likely to support a party that best represents your views, not only on Brexit but on the political spectrum generally.  So let's look at combining Brexit and the general left/right view of politics.


THE STANDARD LEFT/RIGHT POLITICAL SPECTRUM

ComRes asked people in late 2014 where they would put themselves on the classic left/right spectrum.  Simplitically, and ignoring overlaps this places the main parties as follows:

This is also like a normal distribution curve, but with the centre bunched up and two long tails either side.

The Just Party's aims most directly represent people who think of themselves as centrist:

1. A Thriving Economy
2. A Caring Society

COMBINING BREXIT AND THE LEFT/RIGHT SPECTRUM

Firstly it is useful to note the official positions of each major party.  These are set out in full here, as in their 2017 manifesto or website. In summary:

• Conservatives / Tory (the current ruling party):  "no longer be members of the single market or the customs union but seek ..... a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement"
• Labour "a new deal" ... "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" 
• LibDems: "Keep the UK in the single market and customs union" as "We passionately believe that Britain is better off in the EU" in economic terms.  However in acepting the result of the Referendum, the LibDems are not full 'pro-EU'
• Greens: "The Green Party accepts the result of the referendum, but we reject the extreme Brexit pursued by our Government."
• UKIP:  Full Brexiter "We fight for a real Brexit"

The Just Party:

• Is centered on Group C for Brexit, covering at least groups B-D.  This is representing the majority of people
• Is centrist on the left/right spectrum, coinciding with the view of the majority of people
• Combinign these, The Just Party therefore represents a signficant majority of people

Each major party's position can be represented by a circle around the centre point of their natural support.  , The size of the circlerepresents the number of people whose vews would naturally coincide, not the breadth of their support along the axes.  Simplistically and roughly:

FURTHER IMPLICATIONS

In representing the peak of left/right opinion, and the majority of people in respect of Brexit, The Just Party represents a significantt majority of people in the UK.  The implications of this are:

• The Just Party would naturally command more natural support than any of the other five establsihed parties (who have had at least one MP in recent years). Nonetheless converting that natural support  into actual support and votes will take some time
• The Just Party would naturally command more support than any of the other new anti-Brexit and pro-EU parties being considered.  This will be covered separately.
• Broadcasters regulated by Ofcom should seriously consider providing The Just Party with air time to express these views, during elections and otherwise.  See Footnote below .  

ARE YOU ONE OF OUR 'NATURAL' SUPPORTERS?

Do your views on Brexit and politics generally coincide with The Just Party?

Don't leave it to someone else.  Get involved.  There are a lots of skills requreid, especially approaching the next General Election.  In the meantime why not become an Associate Member?  Or just make a donation.  Our GoFundMe site is here 24x7 for online payment.




Footnote
Ofcom rule 6.2 for Elections and Referendums says "Due weight must be given to the coverage of parties and independent candidates during the election period. ...must take into account evidence of past electoral support and/or current support. Broadcasters must also consider giving appropriate coverage to parties and independent candidates with significant views and perspectives."  Ofcom has confirmed that this means no guarantee of coverage, but brodcasteres should consider coverage even if no evidence of past or current electoral support. That opens up coverage for new and emerging parties with signfiiant views and perspectives, such as The Just Party.