Tuesday 1 August 2017

Philip Hammond - Friend or Foe?

Brexiters are clamouring for Philip Hammond to be sacked.  That's understandable.  He's a foe to them.  He doesn't share their vision for the UK.  There's several reasons for this, which we'll discuss.  Maybe his 'home' isn't in the Conservative party and should be elsewhere..  But where?

Just before Philip was made Chancellor he was Foreign Secretary, responsible for relationships with countries across the globe.  In early July last year he was a few days away from attending a conference with his opposite numbers from the EU27.

Dawn at Virginia Water in his constituency
The occasion was his last grilling from the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, one of the cross-party groups that holds each of the executives to account.  It was also the first after the Brexit vote.  I was there (and he wished me a happy birthday afterwards, he may remember).  Interestingly he had the hardest time from the three fellow Conservatives on the panel, all Brexiters.

"Show some enthusiasm!" about Brexit the Tory Chairman told Philip half way through.  It was crystal clear Philip was a strong Remainer at heart.  There's nothing to indicate that's changed.

He's also a pragmatist, having started and run his own businesses.  Businesses are telling him that there needs to be a transition period.  He's listening and responding like a responsible adult. There's various issues for business, including changes to their supply chain, reliance on staff from the EU, and a host of other matters. One of them is the time it takes to modify or replace systems and processes, as I raised yesterday. The stats showed it was by far the topic of most interest to people, given it has had little coverage.  So often systems are taken for granted.  Timescales are equivalent to buildings, for very similar reasons (design, approval, foundations, core build, fit out, commissioning) be they new or altered.

It's clear from the systems angle that a transition of at least two years is essential.  Walking away from the EU talks with no deal, and no transition, would be catastrophic for business.  It's a no-no. What's bad for business is bad for the country in terms of economy, fewer jobs and less taxation receipts that are needed to pay for our public services.

So in seeking a transition period, Philip Hammond is very much our friend, and an essential senior member of the Cabinet.

TAKING THIS A STEP FURTHER

The question is whether Philip would go one step further and back a StopBrexit campaign if he could. Would he?

There is now a cross-party APPG that is looking to soften Brexit.  Would any of their members be prepared to back a StopBrexit campaign?

Given that both the Labour and Tory parties are officially for Brexit, it would be difficult for MPs to back a StopBrexit campaign and remain party members.

Talk last July was of a group of Remainer MPs from across the house, including ministerial level, who were contemplating forming a new party. This must be back on the cards this summer. There needs to be a catalyst to make it happen.  There will be a catalyst, but what will it be?

Maybe it will be Philip Hammond. Another key question is how much does he want to be Prime Minister?  The role is not everybody's cup of tea and ambition.  He's got tantalisingly close as Theresa May's deputy now whilst she's away on holiday. Is this taster sweet or sour for him?

If it's clear he won't be Leader of the Conservative party, and it's unlikely, will the chance to lead a new anti-Brexit and centrist party appeal? One that could get enough support to make him PM? Would this be the catalyst for him to pull APPG members into a new party?

Whatever the catalyst, The Just Party is ready and registered to be the 'vehicle' for this new party. It is for the intiial MPs to make of it what they will.






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