Wednesday, 16 August 2017

A New Anti-Brexit Party - But Which One?

James Chapman has hit the headlines in recent days proposing a new party to fight Brexit.  As David Davis's former Chief of Staff in the Department for Leaving the EU, he has seen the negotiations with the EU from the inside.  His view is Brexit will be a disaster, despite the most valiant of efforts. His tweets in recent days have been a tirade that has led some who know him to publicly to fear for his health.  Yet the core of the tweets is spot on, including the need for a new anti-Brexit party that is broadly centrist.

The new party he's dubbed "The Democrats" would launch at an event in London on 9 September, between the two days of debate of the first Brexit Bill, dubbed the 'Great Repal Bill' on 7th and 11th.  It is clear that the new party is in its earliest stages.  There would be a long registration process with the Electoral Commission.  The first detail of the party made public, its proposed emblem, would not be acceptable to register as it needs to be square.  The name itself may be too similar to other registered parties to be registered, not least given the Liberal Democrats. It doesn't bode well for the more complicated matters. That new party certainly has got a long way to go before it can field candidates!

Yet a suitable anti-Brexit party already exists.   The Just Party.  It is the only one already registered with the Electoral Commission, and thus the only one currently able to field candidates in elections under the party name. Its foundations are centrist.  The anti-Brexit position has been taken as Brexit risks undermining the Party's two principal aims:
  1. A Thriving Economy
  2. A Caring Society
Its position on the Brexit and Left-Right spectrums compared to the more established parties is as follows.  

The circles are around the epicentre of support for each party, according to 2017 manifestos or websites. The rectangle around the Just Party represents the realistic reach of the party.  An equivalent rectangle could be drawn around each party's circle.  This explains why Labour and Tories have traditionally fought over the floating voters in the centre, who up to now have not had a party like The Just Party representing them directly.

The Just Party circle is bigger than the others to represent a much larger number of people in its rectangle than any of the other parties in their respective rectangles.

This is for two reasons:
  • Position on Left-Right spectrum
  • Position on A-F Brexit spectrum

The Just Party was formed before Brexit, to fill a gap in the political spectrum between centre-left LibDems and the right-wing Conservatives.  ComRes confirmed a few weeks later that the vast majority of the electorate see themselves in The Just Party's precise position, as shown by the lines (top total electorate, bottom actual voters).

So The Just Party naturally represents the vast majority of people in terms of the left-right spectrum.


Support for Leave and Remain remains around 50:50 according to recent polls.  So let's split the electorate into smaller groups to help understand what is going on:

Single Market
Embrace the EU
Pro-EU Lite
A little scepticism
Mildly Remain
Some scepticism
Mildly Leave
Somewhat more sceptical
Clearly Leave

The groups are discussed more fully here, Put together with the experience of talking to people, it would appear that the groups broadly fit into a standard 'normal distribution' curve as follow:
The Just Party is in group C.  Its reach for its policies and initiatives would typically cover groups B, C and D, and therefore up to some 80% of the electorate (12 + 34 + 34).  Certainly a good initiative should command a clear majority of support from the country.

Hence as an alternative to remaining fully in the EU, the proposal for a 'Half Brexit' whereby:
  • The UK joins an upgraded 'EEAplus', being the current European Economic Area upgraded to boost the UK's involvement in decisions, and add any EU trading aspects not currently covered by the EEA agreements
  • The UK otherwise leaves the EU, including no need for MEPs
  • But the UK retains collaboration in key non-political pan-European initiatives that do not need the UK to be EU members, such as the Open Skies initiative for air travel
 The benefits of a 'Half Brexit' include:
  • Solving all three key initial UK/EU negotiation topics that have stalled, including crucially the Irish border issue
  • Removing economic downside of Brexit, thereby helping restore the Pound's strength and thereby reduce inflation deriving from food and other imports
  • Providing a better economic solution for the EU that politically doesn't cross any red lines, so the EU should support the idea
  • Helps to heal the 50:50 divide by being supported by a clear majority of the UK electorate, both the more moderate Remainers and the more moderate Leavers
Please see a more expansive discussion of the proposal for a 'Half Brexit' here


The Just Party naturally commands far greater support from the UK electorate than any other established party.  This is due to its position on both the Left-Right and Brexit spectrums.  But converting 'natural support' to actual support at the ballot box is not easy.

The Just Party now needs a celebrity and/or prominent politician to propel the party into the headlines.  One or more of the MPs in the new cross-party APPG perhaps? Ideally MPs from both Labour and Conservative parties.  Do step forward!

You yourself can help if you would like to see these ideas become prominent, and to see The Just Party at the ballot box next election.  That could be sooner rather than later, given Theresa May's slim majority. Do support us now:  

  1. With your time, to help spread the word. On Twitter, Facebook and otherwise to your friends.  Especially if you know moderate anti-Brexit MPs and other influential people who would be interested.
  2. Simply make a donation.  Minimum £5 and up to £500 can be made by anyone anywhere in  the world without your name being disclosed.  Your name will not be published without your permission, but you can if you wish remain anonymous.
  3. Anyone making a donation of £24 or more will optionally become an Associate Member of The Just Party.  Details are here. This is even if you are a member of another party. 
Why  not?  Do support us today!

No comments:

Post a Comment