Wednesday 16 August 2017

Brexit - Let's Collaborate Independently

There's a spectrum of views on Brexit.  Currently polls suggest there is still a 50:50 split of support for Leave and Remain.  The country is split down the middle.  Yet look more closely and the picture is not so simple.  There is the chance of an arrangement with the EU that would be supported by a clear majority.

THE SPECTRUM OF VIEWS ON BREXIT

Those who are 'pro-EU' are keen to join the federalist dream of the EU so:
  • Want the UK to become one of the United States of Europe
  • Want the UK to adopt the Euro in place of Pound Sterling
At the other end of the spectrum there are 'Brexiters' who want to have nothing at all to do with the EU, other than some form of free trade deal.

In the middle there is potentially a far larger group who want to collaborate with their European neighbours whilst maintaining a degree of independence.  Greater in number but not so vocal.

Indeed we can split the UK electorate into six groups across the Brexit spectrum.  As the Single Market will inevitably require Free Movement of People, border control is covered by the Single Market: 

Stance
Single Market
Euro-scepticism
REMAIN



A
Pro-EU
Yes
Embrace the EU
B
Pro-EU Lite
Yes
A little scepticism
C
Mildly Remain
Yes
Some scepticism
LEAVE



D
Mildly Leave
Yes
Somewhat more sceptical
E
Clearly Leave
Possibly
Sceptical
F
Brexiter
No
Anti-EU

Group A, as mentioned above, want to embrace the federalist dream of the EU

Group B want to maintain arrangements in the EU as they are, with MEPs but maintaining the Pound.  'Pro-EU Lite' if you like.

Group C does not want to be sucked into the federalist model at some later date.  They want to maintain as much independence for the UK as possible whilst collaborating with our European neighbours.  This is by maintaining the UK's position in the Single Market and other non-political initiatives like Open Skies.  Prepared to otherwise leave the full EU, and prepared to lose MEPs..

Group D are those whose concern about a federalist EU is somewhat stronger, and so on balance voted Leave.  But this was a close decision.  They would still like to stay in the Single Market if possible.

Group E are keener on an independent UK, including control of the UK's borders.  But still are open to remaining in the Single Market if that makes economic sense to them as individuals. 

Group F are the Brexiters who want nothing to do with the EU other than a free trade agreement

Experience of talking to people suggests the six groups are broadly in accordance with a normal distribution:

The two outer groups are vocal, as is the case with most matters. It's the 'silent majority' in the middle that are the most important.

THE JUST PARTY POSITION

Brexit is a cross-party issue, and this blog post is politically neutral. But it is relevant that The Just Party's natural position on Brexit is in Group C, only just in favour of remaining in the EU.  This is principally to stay in the Single Market and to collaborate on non-political projects.

For the right C-style initiatives, you might expect support from groups B and D too. That would be support from a massive 80% of the electorate (12+34+34). In any case at least a clear majority.

Any such initiative is certainly worth serious consideration from both a pragmatic and political perspective.

THE 'COLLABORATE INDEPENDENTLY' PROPOSAL

How can the UK collaborate with the EU on economic and important non-political matters whilst maintaining a degree of independence?  Not just now but for the long term?

One such initiative is 'Half Brexit'.  Could do with a better name but it does 'what it says on the tin' for the long term:
  • The UK would join an upgraded 'EEAplus', being the current European Economic Area upgraded to boost the UK's involvement in decisions, and add any EU trading aspects not currently covered by the EEA agreements
  • The UK otherwise leaves the EU, including no need for MEPs
  • But the UK retains collaboration in key non-political pan-European initiatives that do not need the UK to be EU members, such as the Open Skies initiative for air travel
Freedom of Movement (FOM) of People would need to be retained. Crucially a recent poll  found that the UK electorate put staying in the Single Market with FOM above restricting FOM by over two to one. That is consistent with the normal distribution model above.

The key benefits of a 'Half Brexit' would be that all three key negotiation issues that have stalled would be resolved:
  1. Irish Border which would continue to be open as at present
  2. Rights of EU27 citizens in UK and Brits in EU27 countries
  3. Settlement of 'divorce bill, covered by new annual contributions
 In addition:
  • Crucially the trading relationship with Europe would remain unaltered, so no risk of a negative economic impact from Brexit.  
  • As a result, sterling would regain much of the 15-20% loss since the referendum, reducing import prices and avoiding their impact on general inflation
  • The proposal broadly fulfils the objectives of each political party.  The upgraded EEA may even count as the 'new deal' sought by the ruling Conservatives
  • The majority of the UK electorate should support the move, probably between 60% and 80%.  The only people disappointed would be those strongly pro-EU and the hard Brexiters who want to be completely independent of Europe.
  • An 'EEAplus' could provide an exit route for any country wanting to leave the EU but remain in a trading relationship.  That might include Greece, which currently is in the euro, and Sweden, which like the UK still has its own currency
  • The European Court of Justice (ECJ), which oversees EU matters and is such a hot issue for many, would be replaced for most purposes by the Courts of the EEA. There has to be some way of enforcing the rules of the Single Market, but not those dread letters ECJ..
  • The UK would retain the right to rejoin the EU, though that would probably require adopting the Euro  (which is another reason not to leave completely now and potentially rejoin later)
What has changed since last year's vote for Article 50 is that there is now a cross-party APPG, consisting of MPs from Labour and Conservative parties in particular, campaigning to stay in the Single Market.  That could make all the difference should they support this initiative.

A lot of people have said we need to heal the 50:50 divide that still exists in the country between Leave and Remain. 'Half Brexit' would do that, in a way that stopping Brexit to keep in the Single Market wouldn't.

'Half Brexit' also solves a number of economic issues for the EU, in terms of supply chains and the ease of selling their products to the UK.  The federalist dream can still drive forward with over 20 countries.  There would need to be a little compromise by the EU, but key red lines would not be crossed.  So the idea should also crucially be acceptable to the EU.

If 'Half Brexit' could be agreed in principle between the UK and EU in less than six months the idea could be put to the UK electorate as a second referendum in Spring 2018 if required.  Assuming the idea was accepted, business would have uncertainty dramatically reduced, and costly organisational changes and system changes could be avoided.

Let's collaborate independently with the EU.  Let's explore the 'Half Brexit' idea as the means to do so.

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