Monday 7 August 2017

'Half-Brexit' - What's That?

How can the UK best fit with Europe?
INTRODUCTION

The Just Party has been campaigning to Stop Brexit. This is principally for economic reasons.  Brexit looks as if it will undermine our principal aim for a Thriving Economy, and therefore fail to produce as much money for the Caring Society that most people want.

But 'anti-Brexit' is not 'Pro-EU', which would mean embracing the whole European Union project of political and financial integration.  Indeed The Just Party is looking at this option, as a potential alternative to Stop Brexit:
  1. For the UK to Remain in the Single Market, provided it is enhanced beyond the current European Economic Area (EEA). and
  2. To otherwise Leave the EU so the UK is not sucked into the United States of Europe and have to adopt the Euro 
Nonetheless the UK needs to continue in various pro-European initiatives such as Euratom, OpenSkies for airlines and those relating to National Security.

This idea is a type of 'Soft Brexit' but there are other soft options.  This idea of remaining in the Single Market but leaving the EU is clearly "Half Brexit".  On Twitter we're saying "#HalfBrexit or #HaltBrexit".

A lot of people had a close decision between Leave and Remain. In many cases it was balancing the economic aspects of objective 1 above against the independence of objective 2.  Some people came down one side, some the other.  This proposal offers both.

Therefore this proposal should find wide public support, and so is worthy of serious consideration.  Only the hard-Brexit Brexiters and hard pro-Europeans would be unhappy. With the country still split roughly 50:50 between Leave and Remain, "Half Brexit" would also help to heal that divide. 

WHAT HAS LED TO THIS PROPOSAL?

The regular YouGov polls repeating the referendum question shows Leave:Remain as 45:45 with 10% undecided.

But significantly the recent ComRes poll for the BBC has found when asking:

Which should be the priority for the British Government when negotiating the UK's withdrawal from the EU?
  • 66% Maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU 
  • [whereas only] 31% Restricting the freedom of movement so immigration from the EU is reduced
The other recent YouGov poll has shown that some people are prepared to take an economic hit to leave the EU, even if that means them or a member of their family losing their job.  But the vast majority do not want an economic hit.

How can these polls be reconciled?   The economic outlook under Brexit is looking worse than it would be to Remain.  Some aspects are already hitting people's pockets as a result of sterling's substantial devaluation, with food prices and holiday costs rising significantly.

So it looks strongly as if economics has become the dominant factor in people's thinking.  But they still have major concerns about remaining in the EU.

The media has whipped up an anti-immigration fervour, but this also means restrictions on Brits travelling, working and living abroad in the EU.  As shown with the ComRes poll, on balance more people are keen to stay in the Single Market, which inevitably means maintaining freedom of movement of people (FOM), by a ratio of over 2:1.

So what are the other concerns about the EU?  Both those who voted Leave and voted Remain have raised various concerns:
  • Not wanting the UK to join the United States of Europe, and be dragged into the Euro
  • Concern as to whether the Euro and/or the EU itself will disintegrate.  Historically currencies for large areas have only lasted with a strong political backing, like the United States of America
  • Too much of life being dictated by the EU, not just related to trading in the Single Market.  Let's bring back control in those areas not covered by the Single Market
  • Now is the last opportunity for the UK to get out of the EU before it is too late
We also have three key issues in the first phase of UK/EU negotiations on which little progress has been made:
  1. The Brexit 'divorce bill' which is hitting the headlines now between £36 billion and over £90 billion
  2. The rights of EU27 citizens in the UK and Brits in the EU27 countries
  3. How to resolve the Irish border between Eire and Northern Ireland, the only land border between the UK and the remaining EU27 countries.  This is probably the most difficult issue, and is discussed here.
The media is now raising the idea of moving into the European Economic Area (EEA) which is currently:
  • The existing 28 EU countries including the UK
  • Plus three EFTA countries, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein 
This idea is often referred to as the 'Norway Option'.  However even the government of Norway has said this would not suit the UK, principally as the UK would have no proper say in changes to the trading rules under which the UK would need to operate.   The UK's current rights would need to be maintained by an upgrade to the EEA.

For trading purposes, the EEA does have its own Court structure, which would at least reduce the need for the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

 An upgraded 'EEAplus' would solve all three key negotiation issues:
  • Immediately solve the Irish border issue, in maintaining existing trade and FOM 
  • With continued FOM, reduce or eliminate the issue of people's rights
  • Replace the Brexit 'divorce bill' with continuing payments, perhaps lower than currently
That means a 'Half Brexit':
  1. Remaining in the Single Market, by staying in an upgraded EEA
  2. Otherwise leaving the EU, to avoid being sucked into a United States of Europe and having to adopt the Euro instead the Pound Sterling

In terms of public support:
  • The hard Brexiters will be unhappy about the proposal, as they want a complete break from the EU. 
  • Those otherwise prioritisng FOM would be unhappy, though many would understand the economic advantages
  • Pro-Europeans would also be unhappy as they want to embrace the European project.  
  • But as the public's views are likely to resemble a normal distribution curve, the vast majority in the middle would support a Half Brexit over the two extremes
68% are in the middle two segments

Politically, the EU needs to support such an initiative.  There are two reasons why they should be prepared to do so:
  • To preserve the trade the EU27 does with the UK, such as cars from Germany, foods from France and produce from Holland
  • The need for a budgetary contribution from the UK
Politically in the UK the lead needs to be taken by Parliament.  There is now a cross-party APPG with the aim of remaining in the Single Market.  This is led by Anna Soubry of the Conservatives and Chuka Umunna of Labour.  However their aims may well involve voting against their respective party whips.  So The Just Party is standing by to welcome any of the MPs in the APPG (or out of it) who want to vote with their conscience and start a truly centrist party.

WHAT DOES A 'HALF BREXIT' MEAN IN PRACTICE

The 'Half Brexit' idea would mean:
  1. The UK remaining in the Single Market, provided it is enhanced beyond the current European Economic Area (EEA) and
  2. Otherwise leaving the EU so the UK is not sucked into the United States of Europe and have to adopt the Euro
This would mean creating a two-tier Europe where:
  • There is the core European Union, with most if not all countries using the Euro currency
  • An additional group of countries which have their own currencies and for one reason or another do not want to be in the core EU
This would then mean:
  • An upgraded European Economic Area (EEA) where EU and non-EU members would have an equal say in how the combined trading bloc runs. Better than Norway and other EFTA members today.  Let's call it 'EEAplus'
  • Non-EU countries would not appoint MEPs.  Very few people in UK take MEP elections seriously anyway.
  • Both groups would contribute to central European funds,  UK's contribution may reduce
  • Free trade inevitably means freedom of movement of people across both zones, the need for which is an EU 'red line'.  Immigration problems in each country would need to be dealt with by other means, and options like emergency brakes could be allowed
  • The current Schengen arrangements could continue, both for countries in and countries out of the EU
  • The Irish border issue would be solved
  • All non-EU countries in the EEAplus would be in on the same terms.  The Brexit negotiations would set those terms
  • The ECJ would have no jurisdiction over non-Eurozone countries, but there would need to be some legal hierarchy and a top Court
  • Within the EU, countries would have the option of being in the Eurozone or not, if they qualify. 
Furthermore:
  • The current EEA is seen primarily as a stepping stone into the EU.  But an EEAplus which maintains trading relationships with the EU could also provide an exit route for those countries wishing to leave the Euro.  Greece for example.
  • Countries like Sweden and Poland that still have their own currency could follow the UK out of the EU and into the non-Eurozone group
  • Switzerland, which has a separate arrangement outside the EEA for trade with the EU could potentially join the EEAplus
  • Turkey has a Customs Union arrangement with the EU, primarily so the large population of Turkey do not have freedom of movement into the EU.  This could continue.
  • That would still leave at least a core of 15 Eurozone countries that can steam ahead into a United States of Europe
BENEFITS OF A 'HALF BREXIT' 

The 'Half Brexit' proposal has a number of benefits, provided it involves an upgrade of the EEA to an EEAplus, where the UK and other participants have as much say in the trading regulations as being in the EU itself.  These benefits are:
  • It would substantially solve the three key EU/UK negotiation issues which have all stalled
  • It avoids the economic hit of Brexit whilst addressing many of the concerns of Leavers and Remainers alike
  • It provides a solution that is likely to command support for much more than 50% of the UK voters.  You can never please everyone!
  • That would help to resolve the current uncomfortable 50:50 Leave:Remain split in the UK
  • It provides an exit route from the Euro for the likes of Greece, and an exit route from the EU for the likes of Sweden.  This is without derailing the core European Union project to create a United States of Europe around the Euro currency
IN CONCLUSION

A 'Half Brexit' is proposed which involves:
  1. The UK remaining in the Single Market, provided it is enhanced beyond the current European Economic Area (EEA) and
  2. Otherwise leaving the EU so the UK is not sucked into the United States of Europe and have to adopt the Euro
It would also involve the UK continuing to participate in pan-European initiatives such as Euratom, OpenSkies for airlines and National Security.

There  are a number of key benefits that include:
  • Substantially solving the three EU/UK negotiation issues that have stalled
  • Avoiding the economic downside of Brexit, whilst addressing many of people's concerns about the EU
  • Thereby likely commanding the support of well over half of UK voters, and help to heal the current 50:50 divide
  • Likely to be acceptable to the EU27 in a WIN-WIN way compared to current likely outcome
These benefits justify the proposal being given serious consideration.

There are of course political issues.  The EU should find the proposal attractive.  In the UK the new cross-party APPG will play a key role, but this is likely to put MPs at odds with their party whips.  The Just Party is standing by to act as the 'vehicle' for MPs who want to vote with their conscience and keen to form a new Cetnrist party.

POSTSCRIPT

Should  a Hlaf-Brexit not be feasible in the requires timescales, then The Just Party's position is still to Stop Brexit.  Or as we now say on Twitter "#HalfBrexit or #HaltBrexit"

Again The Just Party is standing by as a 'vehicle' for Remainer MPs to use to escape their party whips on Brexit.  That is should they also want to form a new Centrist party away from Corbyn or the Tory right.  The more MPs the merrier!


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