Reality Bites

Groupings of European countries complex

A week is a long time in politics.  A week ago Jeremy Corbyn sacked three of his frontbench for backing Chuka Ummuna's amendment to the Queens Speech to avoid the UK leaving the Single Market.  Such a move would be possible as a variation of the 'Norway option' where Norway is a member of the Single Market without being a member of the EU.

Labour's manifesto says "...emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union..."., whatever that means.  In any case Michel Barnier, the EU's Chief Negotiator, has said since the sackings "I have heard some people in the UK argue that one can leave the single market and keep all of its benefits - that is not possible..." Labour's position blown out of the water, alongside that of the Government.

Indeed Barnier has said that Britain has yet to come to terms with the brutal reality of leaving the EU.  The UK Government certainly hasn't.  Nor has Labour.  Both appearing clueless.

The official leaving process covered by Article 50 is the 'divorce' of a country leaving.  The time limit is two years.  However that doesn't cover any 're-marriage' in the form of new trade deal, which would need to follow on.  There is no stipulated time limit and that can easily take 10 years or more.

The UK government's initial position was that talks on a trade deal should run in parallel with the divorce talks, so all was completed in the two years.  That had to be conceded almost immediately the negotiations formally started.  Divorce first, trade deal to follow.  2 + say 10 years would be potentially 12 years of no deal and the difficulties that would bring.

SO WHAT DO BUSINESSES SAY?

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI ) has announced they will be meeting David Davis, who is leading the UK's Brexit team.  They will be making their case for a much more realistic approach, as in the Telegraph headline "Business leaders threaten to derail Brexit by demanding Britain stays in Single Market and Customs Union indefinitely".  The BBC has taken a more moderate position "CBI urges single market until Brexit deal".

That request would mean the UK continuing with free movement of people and the continued jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.  Those are the two main issues why Brexiters want to leave the EU.  Effectively the UK would not leave the EU, but would lose all rights of influence.  ("What?" I hear you shout).

It is then only one short step to stopping Brexit altogether.  Sooner the better.  It is clearly selling Britain down the pan.