Monday, 17 July 2017

Brexit: The Timing Conundrum

A little earlier I wrote about Brexit being able to stand on its own two feet.  But that reminds me of the replies I sent to a tweet from Isabel Oakeshott last night:

Brexit is all about timing. In economic terms, any advantages to Brexit come later.  New trade deals with countries such as the United States can only be signed AFTER the UK leaves the EU.  Many argue that negotiations cannot legally start until after the UK leaves.  But even if they can start, the nature of the UK/EU trading deal needs to be known first.  That new relationship could take years to negotiate, as the two-years for Article 50 is only about the divorce.  As a trade deal typically takes a good 10 years to negotiate, two deals in series could mean any new deals not applying for 20 years or more.  That's just the way it is, whatever the intentions.  there's a lot of detail to cover.

Yet Brexiters choose to ignore that. 

In the meantime in economic terms we seem to be shooting ourselves in the foot.  Time and time again.  Yesterday's Observer 'leader' sets out some of the drawbacks we are already experiencing from Brexit. 

The question is: Will the country have any feet left to stand on before any Brexit benefits appear?

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