"UK Firms Hold Off From Making Brexit Plans"

So 'screamed' a minor headline in the Business pages of the i Newspaper this morning.

Research by the Institute of Directors (IoD) interviewing 1000 business leaders suggested most (but not all) had made plans for their businesses, but only 1 in 10 had started to implement them.  Mainly because they don't know which direction Brexit will go.  Confusion and uncertainty.  The very enemies of business.

THE BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS WEEK 2

Later today we will hear how this week's negotiations have gone in Brussels between the UK and EU over the three key starters for 10:

1. Ongoing rights of EU citizens in UK and vice versa
2. The Divorce Bill the UK will have to pay (on which Boris Johnson's "Whistling in the wind" has backfired)
3. The UK/Eire border, perhaps the inherently most difficult problem to solve

The danger is that negotiations will actually break down at some stage. That could easily be over one or more of these early issues.  In fact that looks the case on all three!

UPDATE AFTER WEEK 2: "Mr Barnier said: "We require this clarification on the financial settlement, on citizens' rights, on Ireland - with the two key points of the common travel area and the Good Friday Agreement - and the other separation issues where this week's experience has quite simply shown we make better progress where our respective positions are clear."

The EU has a very good website for the negotiations. On there it is confirmed that "The UK will cease to be a member of the European Union at midnight on 29 March 2019".  Unless a deal is done, the UK falls off a cliff.  No more flights between UK and Europe. Supply chains disrupted.  Empty shelves at the supermarket given so much is imported from EU. That's the harsh reality of "No Deal".

It's difficult to imagine a deal worse than "No Deal".  But it's also difficult to imagine a deal as good as what we have as members.  Simply because non-members cannot be given as good a deal.  Any advantages from trade deals with other countries won't we felt for 10, 20 years or more, they take so long to negotiate.  We can't wait for that.

STOP BREXIT!


The answer's simple.  Stop Brexit.  Politically embarrassing but vital.  If anything is in the National Interest, that's it.
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Two key things need to happen:

1. Politicians need to accept that last year's Referendum result wasn't a blank cheque for any Brexit at any cost, but a 'starting gun'.  Democracy demands the public (or their MP representatives) keep the project under review.
2. The Article 50 notification needs to be revoked

Now if there is one key card in the UK's negotiating hand, it is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU.  Not £350m as on the side of the bus, but some £100m net a week. Over £5 billion a year.  Smaller than estimates of the tax lost in the UK though the black economy, and smaller than taxes that could be lost as a result of Brexit (which is why it could never be given to the NHS).  But certainly significant for the EU.

It might be hoped that the EU would welcome a UK decision to cancel Brexit and remain in the EU.  But on what terms?  The EU has published their opinion that the UK cannot revoke the Article 50 notification unilaterally.  There is nothing explicit about such withdrawal in the EU treaties.  The EU say revocation will require agreement by the EU.


The person who drafted Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty happens to be a Brit.  Lord Kerr, a former senior British diplomat.   He has said recently that:

• He didn't expect Article 50 to be ever used, and certainly not by UK
• UK could choose to stay in the EU even after exit negotiations had begun, by revoking the Article 50 notification
• Brexit should be stopped because of "disastrous consequences"

As one of Britain’s former ambassadors to Washington and to the EU he says:

• "Even before the UK has left the EU, we face falling living standards, rising inflation, slowing growth and lower productivity"
• “Our international reputation has been seriously damaged, leaving the UK weak, with diminished influence, in an increasingly uncertain and unstable world"

The trouble is if the EU dig in their heels over the Article 50 revocation.  "When" it comes, not "if".

Then it may have to go to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), as final arbiter. Ironic, eh?