Wednesday 5 July 2017

How Reliant Is The UK On EU Nationals?

The paper held by Jeremy Hunt
If a Minister walks into 10 Downing Street with papers visible to the waiting press photographers, there are only two explanations:
  1. The Minister is incompetent, or
  2. They want the press to see it
So when Jeremy Hunt, the Health Minister, walked into 10 Downing Street yesterday with his paper clearly visible, what would you imagine?

It said "Hard Brexit means people fleeing UK".  He asserts in a tweet that this related to a question when he faced Oral Questions, and that "I have never been advised or believed Brexit means people 'fleeing the UK".

But let's consider this a minute.  There are some 150,000 EU nationals working in the NHS.  Mr Hunt himself has told the Commons that includes some 9% of doctors and 19% of nurses in England.  There are already shortages of both.  Even a small reduction in EU nationals would have a potentially devastating effect on the NHS.

Then there's UK nationals who might think it's time to make their move abroad.  A net immigration problem (and let's face it, the pressure on housing and public services does make it a problem) could quickly turn into a 'Brain Drain'.

The NHS isn't the only problem.  Farmers are screaming that they are reliant on EU workers to pick crops.  Food processing businesses, including for all the pre-packaged foods, are also heavily dependent on imported labour.  That's at all levels.

What about the hospitality industry?  Our 'coffee shop culture' is dependent on eastern Europeans. Around here it is Hungarians, Poles, Latvians and Romanians.  Not just coffee shops but all the food outlets which we love.   Hotels too. I spoke to a German girl who had come to the UK in her year off before university and was a waitress at one of our 'fine hotels'.

What are these people saying?:
  1. They had only planned to be in the UK temporarily, or were otherwise considering going home
  2. If they were now considering coming to the UK, they wouldn't.
A key reason is the sterling:euro exchange rate.  If they want to earn money to take or send home, the UK is now offering considerably less.


The exchange rate tumbled when the Referendum vote was announced, as the Leave result was not expected.  This is because Brexit is lilely to mean a weaker UK economy (which of course is a problem in its own right).

We already have the weaker exchange rate tranlating into significant food price inflation, because so much of our food and drink is imported. A lack of labour inevitably means labour costs have to rise, stoking food inflation further.  That translates directly into overall inflation.

The problem is that if workers are going to leave the UK, and they are less likely to be replaced, there will be a substantial labour shortage.  Not only will NHS services be under intense pressure, but businesses will close. and prices will rise.  Inflation will then take hold again.

Do people realise what Brexit means?  When they do, the clamour to stop Brexit will become intense.

Already a poll suggests 60% of Brits want to retain thei EU citizenship and the benefits that brings.  60% is statistically significant.

Why not foresee the clamour and stop Brexit now?

The Just Party is the way to do it!


No comments:

Post a Comment