Brexit. Head or Heart?

On the left is a model of the final sculpture

A resident of Ascot, which likes to call itself a village, once told me that it is "A one-horse town except when the races are on." Yesterday I stumbled upon an attempt to make it a two-horse town, by erecting a War Horse monument beside the racecourse.  The event was a fund-raiser at which the sculptor's drawings were being sold.

I spoke to various people, one of whom , now retired, told me about her Brexit vote last June.

They say that purchases are made with the heart and justified with the head.  That bright red open-top sports car.  Want it.  And won't it be good for summer evenings?

But worse is where the head and heart don't agree over a decision.  Like what to vote.  Then you have a dilemma.  In her case her head said Remain, her heart said Leave. She had been able to vote in the 1975 referendum.  Then the benefit of joining what was then termed the Common Market was economic.  But there was concern about Europe becoming a super-state.  Many Brits didn't want to be part of that.  And many still don't, probably much more than 50%.  Outright support for the EU is low in my experience.

A friend of mine who is a barrister, and bright as a button, was also just able to vote in 1975.  He too was conflicted head and heart last June.  Like her his heart won and voted Leave, despite voting Join in 1975.

It is not just Brexiters who are euro-sceptics.  Many Remain voters are too. Sceptical about the EU and the UK's part in it, either worried about the transition, the end result, or believe that change needs to come by the UK being within.  Nonetheless their key concerns about the EU are:

• A wish for the UK to be self-governing as far as possible
• Wanting the UK to be part of a trading bloc, but not part of a super-state
• Keep pound sterling and the power to set interest rates.  This is perhaps the biggest flag of sovereignty, and risks being lost if the UK leaves but later decides to re-apply to the EU and adopt the euro.
• Not wanting Westminster to be over-ruled by the European Court of Justice (ECJ).  This means Ministers are not free to make decisions. For example, changes ot the R&D Tax Credit for smaller businesses have to be approved by the EU. The UK also has to implement directives from Brussels, though many of which like Clean Beaches are positive.
• Immigration and control of the UK's borders

The choice in 2016 was much the same as it was in 1975, but with the benefit of hindsight. In voting to Remain or Leave for many people it was six of one and half a dozen of the other.  It was often left to the heart, did you feel you want the UK independent, or feel part of the European community?  What about now?  Do you fear Brexit?

The Leave campaign got it right.  "Let's Take Back Control" appealing to the heart plus the bus saying £350m per week more money could be spent on the NHS.  The latter both head and heart, and a lie as it turns out. (£350m was a gross figure. The true net figure after what the UK gets back was just over £100m a week, and won't be available if economy delivers less tax receipts, as is anticipated.).

Many people believe in the economic benefits of being in the EU, which Brexit would lose long before any new trade deals kick in.  There are other benefits such as the ability to live and work freely across the EU, that look as if they would be withdrawn as a result of Brexit. For these people, head and heart believe these are more important than the ECJ and immigration issue.  They are Remainers.

Brexiters disagree. Their heart says independence.  Their head says sod the cost and the consequences.

As we seriously contemplate stopping Brexit, public opinion will depend on the heart as much as mind.  What will now sway people one way or the other?