Thursday 6 July 2017

Is The Referendum Result Legitimate?

Key to the #Brexit/#StopBrexit decision is the legitimacy and meaning of the Leave referendum result last June.

Leavers say it is a "democratic" result. "The people have spoken", "Let's get on with it".  I'm inclined to agree.

But
  1. How legitimate was it?
  2. What did it mean?

LEGITIMACY OF THE LEAVE RESULT

The Government said that if at least 50% of voters voted to Leave, then that is what the Government would action. That was clearly understood. Nearly 52% voted to Leave, so Leave it is.

However:
  • Arguably that fundamental a decision should require 50% of the electorate.  Only 37%  voted to Leave
  • 52% is only a marginal decision. The difference between Leave and Remain was only 1,268,501 (17,410,742 Leave to  16,141,241 Remain).  If only half of these had voted the other way, some 635 thousand, Remain would have won
  • The campaigns on both sides were full of exaggerations, half truths and outright lies.  There is no body to police this.  The Advertising Standards Authority have sought to do so, but have no authority.  The biggest lie was the £350m a week on the bus - it was debunked as being the gross figure, with only some £120m net being money we don't get back - yet the bus still continued to be used and displayed by the media without that clarification. 
  • Whilst there is an undoubted core of hard Brexiters, there were a number of people I have met whose votes for Leave were dubious, including:
    • An Ascot racegoer who was swung by believing the bus 
    • A taxi driver who flipped a coin (5 votes from the one coin)
    • A black cabbie who hadn't considered the risk to the City and his livelihood, and was now regretting his Leave vote
    • A cameraman who made it a protest vote, thinking Remain would win
  • The impression is a lot of Leave votes in Labour strongholds in the north were protest votes against austerity "It can't get any worse" (Oh yes it can!)
  • Conversely everyone I have asked who voted Remain did so for legitimate reasons
Nonetheless the referendum was conducted under current democratic rules, so must be respected.


BUT WHAT DOES THE LEAVE VOTE MEAN?

Had the vote been resounding and uncontentious, the Government would be authorised to press on.  But even then it would be ridiculous to say that they would have a blank cheque for Brexit at any cost.  Democratically there must be the opportunity for the public to say "Not in that direction" or "Stop!"  Even without the Leave result being dubious.

The LibDems have so far suggested a second referendum, once the deal is known in a couple of years.  That's too late.  Given the EU would prefer the UK to remain, it also risks the EU only agreeing a bad deal so the UK voters would reject it.  The voters in the general election rejected that half-hearted approach, though possibly because they thought Labour's approach was a 'soft Brexit'. Corbyn, Labour's leader, has since confirmed it as 'hard' as the Tories, and Labour's manifesto was meaningless.

It is better to regard the Leave vote as a 'starting gun' of a race to a Brexit finishing line.  Authority for the Government to deliver the Article 50 notification and start negotiations.  But there must be the opportunity to steer the race in a different direction, or stop it altogether. On a timely basis. That's proper democracy.

Sadly there is no direct mechanism to do that.  The only option is to force a General Election and give the public the opportunity to vote for a party that will stop Brexit. That is The Just Party.


WHAT CAN YOU DO?

  1. If you are an MP who believes in stopping Brexit, do you believe that the UK should have a Thriving Economy to be a Caring Society? If so, then defect to The Just Party and force a by-election.  Better still, pair up with another MP from another party.  Ideally at least 5 Labour and at least 5 Conservative MPs.  That's potentially enough  to force a General Election, as it would counterbalance the DUP deal.
  2. Champion the cause. Spread the word.  Social media, whatever
  3. Support The Just Party as a member
  4. Support The Just Party with hard cash.  Sadly a party can only properly function by spending money, and that requires a significant income
Let's do it!

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