As a result, six months ago MPs voted for the Article 50 notification to the EU that the UK wished to withdraw.
Now it is looking increasingly likely that there will be “no deal” and the UK will crash out of the EU as early as March 2019 and become a “third country” to the EU. That would that mean extra paperwork and delays for importers and exporters across the Channel and Irish border, especially painful for the movement of foodstuffs and other perishables. The UK would also lose the EU’s trade deals with other countries, depending how quickly replacements can be put in place. Chaos for years, and an inevitable seriously negative impact on the economy.
At what point will MPs grasp the seriousness of that prospect and say “stop”? How will they do so?
WHERE WE ARE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS
There has now been four rounds of negotiations between the UK and EU since the A50 notification. Three key issues have been on the table and none of them have been resolved. Indeed the EU have stated that there has not been adequate progress on any of them to go onto the next stage of discussing a future trading relationship. Time is running out and the two sides seem to be as far apart as ever.
The overall situation was suitably summarised by Michel Barnier, leading negotiations for the EU, in a speech he made in July. Theresa May’s recent speech in Florence may have improved the tone of the negotiations, but that has not yet been enough.
Furthermore, fifteen months on from the referendum and the UK has still not put a credible proposal in place for how the future relationship would work. A key issue is letting the UK control its borders instead of the Free Movement of People that the EU requires. Can this be resolved to get a deal? It’s looking unlikely.
WHAT DOES THE COUNTRY THINK?
The indication from polls is that there might be a small shift so that Remain might just beat Leave if the referendum were to be re-run. Certainly a preference for Remain compared to "No Deal". But more important is what’s behind this. As Labour MP Angela reports from the doorsteps of her constituency that voted Leave “...there were voters who just wanted Brexit. They told me they didn’t care what it looked like or how many jobs it cost. But such attitudes were significantly outnumbered by those who made it clear they didn’t want Brexit to damage the country or their own living standards. One could feel, in fact, a sense of dismay in relation to the government’s handling of the Article 50 process so far.” That concern is echoed right across the country by those who voted Leave or Remain, whatever the colour of their politics.
Professor Chris Grey has said "... just about everybody with any knowledge of what Brexit means, and just about everyone who has to take responsibility for dealing with it, is opposed to it. Whilst just about everybody who supports it does not have the responsibility for delivering it or the knowledge needed to do so." It’s a matter of dogma versus pragmatism. Dogma is currently winning in government, but we must be more pragmatic in the national interest.
SO WHAT NEXT?
The UK government has just declined a second referendum, despite a petition of well over the 100,000 threshold for considering a debate.
It is up to MPs to lead the country on our behalf. That is what they were democratically elected to do. The referendum result was a ‘starting gun', not a blank cheque to crash out of the EU.
Progress against the vision for which the people voted should be kept under review. If the vision is not achievable, and a second referendum is not happening, shouldn’t MPs act accordingly?
How? There is already a cross-party MPs’ group called the “APPG on EU Relations” that is campaigning for the best deal for Brexit, specifically to stop a “no deal”. This is led by Chuka Umunna from Labour and Anna Soubry from Conservatives with parliamentarians from other parties.
The Labour Party has just held its conference, and ducked the issue of Brexit. Officially Labour still backs a vision of Brexit very similar to what the Government is pursuing. But many Labour MPs are against that, and at the very least believe the UK should stay in the Single Market and Customs Union, even if that means continuing Free Movement of People.
A similar situation exists in the Conservative party. As their conference starts, there is a ‘life boat’ option for MPs and others who do not support a “no deal” scenario and who would call themselves “compassionate Conservatives” nearer the centre of the left-right spectrum. That is to form a new party in coalition with like-minded MPs and supporters in Labour:
The new party would be to the right of the LibDems which supports a rather socialist agenda, and would be unacceptable to most Conservatives. It also would more closely match where ComRes found most voters placed themselves on the left-right spectrum:
It takes at least a couple of months to register and get approval for a new political party. The Just Party is already registered and stands ready to be the ‘vehicle’ for the new group.
If you believe in this vision, do donate to the cause so we can better promote that vision. Up to £500 can be donated by anyone anywhere without your identity being made public..
In any case, do tell MPs who you think would be interested in making such a stand against Brexit in the national interest.
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