Saturday 5 August 2017

Pro-EU or Anti-Brexit? How About A 'Half Brexit'?

There are those people and groups who consider themselves Pro-EU, and those who are anti-Brexit.  So what are the differences? How can these disparate views be resolved?

Pro-EU people will wave EU flags and typically:
  • Want to embrace the EU and the idea of a United States of Europe as strongly as Germany and France
  • Want the UK to adopt the Euro as its currency, in place of Pound sterling
Clearly pro-EU people will be anti-Brexit.  But there are other reasons. One probably larger group of people who are anti-Brexit and voted Remain believe:
  • The UK should keep the Pound
  • Do not want to join in the United States of Europe (USE)
  • Primarily want to keep the UK in the Single Market
  • Also want to keep freedom of movement, not least as any restrictions of EU citizens to the UK will be mirrored in restrictions on Brits in Europe
  • Worried about the risk of negative economic impact of Brexit, especially during transition
Another group of people voted Leave. not that they are wholly anti-Europe like Brexiters, but who prioritised the USE issue over the others.  Part of the VoteLeave mantra of "Taking Back Control"

The Just Party is anti-Brexit for the list of reasons given above. It is not pro-EU.

HOW CAN THESE DISPARATE VIEWS BE RESOLVED?

A very recent  ComRes poll for the BBC has found this:

Which should be the priority for the British Government when negotiating the UK's withdrawal from the EU?

  • 66% Maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU 
  • [whereas only] 31% Restricting the freedom of movement so immigration from the EU is reduced
We have to assume that remaining in the Single Market would require freedom of movement, which most respondents realise.  So Single Market appears to win.
 
The vast majority of people are also against being poorer as a result of Brexit.  The devaluation of the pound immediately after the Referendum is stoking inflation on any imports, especially food.  That's affecting everyone.  But that's only the start.  The economic impact only looks to be getting worse, as the Bank of England has just confirmed.

Despite this, the latest YouGov poll suggests there is still roughly 50:50 support for Remain and Leave.

So it's interesting to imagine a Referendum with three questions:
  1. Leave the EU
  2. Remain in the EU
  3. Remain in the Single Market but otherwise leave the EU
Given that many people do not want the UK to take part in the United States of Europe, but do want to stay in the Single Market, then I would imagine option 3 would win. Probably more than half the votes.

That is a type of 'Soft Brexit'.  But as that has a number of options, let's call option 3 specifically a 'Half Brexit'.

A 'Half Brexit' would be best achieved by creation of a proper two-tier Europe, being in or out of the Euro.  This could also solve issues like Greece having an option to leave the Euro. Here are some ideas as a basis for further discussion.

But if a 'Half Brexit' is not possible, then we must Stop Brexit.

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