The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill. Is It Going Down The Right Path?

As Brexit rumbles on, the Commons in Parliament is today debating the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, followed by further debate and a vote on Monday.  Is the UK really going down the right path?

Outside Parliament, the majority of the debate is economic and about the risks that apply to Brexit.  Should the UK remain a member of the Single Market and Customs Union? Is that more important than restricting Freedom of Movement of People, either into the UK from the EU or indeed restricting how Brits can move around Europe?

The financial numbers at risk are huge, whether you believe the forecasts or not.  The Labour campaign for staying in the Single Market notes “the Treasury estimate that moving from the "soft" Brexit of the European Economic Area (EEA) to the "hard" Brexit of a Canadian-type deal is estimated to cost an additional £16 billion each year [in tax revenues], and that if the UK defaults to WTO trade rules, then the annual tax loss may be as high as £45 billion (four times the annual public expenditure on English GPs).

There’s then concern about specific pan-European collaborations.  Scientific research, air travel, security and several other collaborations.

But virtually nobody is saying that the UK should remain in the EU to become one of the United States of Europe, nor to adopt the Euro.  Yet that is the direction the EU is taking us.

Last June the UK electorate was given just two options in the Referendum, Leave or Remain.  Many people struggled with that choice.  We are a proud nation with an independent history.  A significant proportion of people, both Leavers and Remainers, want European trade and collaboration to continue but want to keep more of a distance from the EU's federal ambitions.

Indeed, the official policies of both the Conservatives and Labour are to negotiate a deal with the EU to preserve the benefits of the Single Market and Customs Union whilst losing some of the constraints, notably:

• Control over the movement of people and
• Being able to negotiate the UK’s own trade deals with other countries

The EU has made it clear that allowing the benefits of membership without being a member is not acceptable.  Even the German Motor Industry has said that preserving the EU27 is more important than their exports to the UK.   The EU simply won’t allow such a 'have cake and eat it' arrangement.

In any case, if nothing else our experience of negotiating with the much larger EU is how little leverage the UK has. That might be enough leverage when negotiating with say Australia, with whom we already do business anyway.  But the UK would have no clout with the US, China, India and the other emerging economies with much larger populations.  Those deals wold be bigger and more important.  A reasonable conclusion is we can negotiate far better deals as part of the might of the EU than the UK can do alone.  So the UK being able to negotiate its own trade deals looks to be more of a disadvantage.

As to movement of people, net immigration from outside the EU, which the UK already ‘controls’ has been running higher than net EU migration for years.  This is according to the official ONS statistics graphed below. What real difference would applying the same level of ‘control’ actually have?  Indeed, applying equivalent control seems to be a ‘red herring’.

'Controlled' net migration from non-EU higher than 'uncontrolled' from EU

When it is clear that Brits will have reciprocal controls over how we can live, work, retire and travel around Europe, restricting the movement of people is actually undesirable. That's supported by a recent poll that suggests people would prefer to remain in the Single Market, which would require keeping FOMP over restricting freedom of movement by 2 to 1.

We also have the knotty problem of the border in Ireland between Eire and Northern Ireland.  That would be the only land border between the UK and the EU.  Freedom of movement of goods, services and people across that border is a key part of the Good Friday peace agreement, which would otherwise be put at risk.  This issue is one of the three primary issues in the initial EU/UK negotiations, for which there is as yet no solution after three rounds.  Keeping the UK in the Single Market and Customs Union would solve that issue at a stroke.

WHAT ABOUT A THREE-WAY VOTE?

It is interesting to postulate how people would vote today if they were given three options:

1. Remain in the EU entirely
2. Remain in the single Market, Customs Union and important specific collaborations only
3. Leave the EU entirely

From the available evidence, it looks like that would be a roughly 20:60:20 result.  In which case should there not be an effort to investigate the feasibility of the ‘Half Brexit’ idea? Perhaps with Parliament stalling the passage of the Withdrawal legislation whilst that is done?

The Just Party has proposed a specific ‘Half Brexit idea as the basis for exploration and discussion around the detail.  The concept is not just the current European Economic Area (EEA) but a bolstered EEAplus. As explained here. this would be in the best interests of both the UK and the EU compared to the UK’s complete withdrawal.  However, compromise on both sides would be needed.  The UK might have to lose its right of veto.  But is that ever used, and does it actually matter provided we have enough influence over the process?  Better than having no control at all over trade matters.

If separating out the Single Market and other important collaborations is not practical, then the UK should remain in the EU to remain in the Single Market.  Given the sums of money at risk, that is what is most important.


SO WHAT TO DO?

Both a Half Brexit and stopping Brexit is against official policy of both the Labour and Conservative parties.  The recent Labour proposal is only for a transition.  For MPs who do not believe that Withdrawal is in the best interests of the country, then how should they rebel?  One option is to join The Just Party, which is centrist in nature, and campaign freely for a sensible outcome to the Brexit situation.   The invitation is here.

Everyone else who is anti-Brexit can support The Just Party in other ways.  Do spread the word. Donations are always appreciated!

Let’s work with our fellow Europeans.  In the right way.