Wednesday 28 June 2017

An Escape Route For Philip Hammond

Theresa May's decision to hold a General Election has weakened her, potentially fatally. 

Rumour has it Philip Hammond is now being lined up as a potential "caretaker" Prime Minister, to take over from Theresa in the autumn.  That would be in time for the party conference.  Assuming of course the Tory government doesn't fall earlier.

But is Philip's heart in it?  Before he was made Chancellor, he was Foreign Secretary. In early July last year he attended his last Foreign Affairs Committee meeting.  There has was grilled about Brexit.  The Leave vote had just been decided, and the Tory members of the Committee were all Leavers.  Gloating.

You can read the report of that meeting yourself, or watch it here.  But I was there, and the over-riding memory is of Hammond being less than positive about Brexit.  I'm sure at some stage he was told to "show some enthusiasm" by the Chairman, or words to that effect.

As Chancellor, I'd hoped he would try and soften Brexit.  But until recently it looked that his views would mean he would be shown the door to Number 11 and asked for the keys.  The General Election has changed that.  He is now in  the ascendancy, and as mentioned above, is in line to be PM.  He can at last publicly tell the Theresa to steer clear of a 'hard' Brexit.  That's part of the "Cabinet Chaos on Brexit" in the photo above.

He knows that tax receipts are forecast to be lower than if Brexit had not occurred.  The pound's lower exchange rate since the Referendum is producing food price inflation, and an increase in general inflation. That means higher costs for the Government in pay for public sector workers and general pensions. Indeed today it was announced that at least some public sector workers would be in line for a pay rise, something which Labour has hailed as an early vistory.  In fact, in being linked to inflation, those rises probably would be happening anyway.

Tax receipts down and government costs up.  A LOSE-LOSE.  I'm sure Philip would actually far prefer to call the whole Brexit thing off.

AN IDEA FOR PHILIP HAMMOND

The Just Party is looking for at least 10 moderate Conservative and Labour MPs to defect to the party, and vote against Brexit bills in Parliament.  That would neuter the recent deal with the DUP.  It would also create a new party in Parliament that better represents the majority of voters in the UK.  Truly for the many.

That group of MPs needs a leader.  Would Philip prefer that to leading the Tories?  Fight to stop Brexit without the shackles of Tory policy?  Shape a new party to truly represent the British people?

Only he would know.  Do bring this to this suggestion to his attention.  Thank you.

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